Track record

Calibration — does our confidence match reality?

Small sample — treat as indicative only until GW8.

In the 70–80% confidence band, we're 50% accurate so far (n=4).

When we predict 70–80% probability, the outcome happens 50% of the time so far, on 4 scored matches. A perfectly calibrated model would match exactly. Every band here sits on 4 to 17 matches, so treat the gaps as noise until the sample grows.